• fr
  • en

No more glacier in the Alps in 80 years?

A new study published in the European Geosciences Union journal shows the Alps would be mostly ice free by 2100. Written by a team of researchers in Switzerland, the study provides updated data on the possible evolution of glaciers in the Alps under the pressure of global warming.

The study demonstrates that from now on until 2050, 50% of the glacier volume will disappear, independently from our greenhouse’s gas emissions management. As for glaciers after 2050, the study draws up two potential scenarios based on previsions regarding temperatures and precipitation, but also on possible future climate policies. After 2050, “the future evolution of glaciers will strongly depend on how the climate will evolve,” says study-leader Harry Zekollari, a researcher at ETH Zurich and the Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow, and Landscape Research, now at Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands.

 

 

A limited global warming could save Alpine glaciers
Scenario 1 – A limited increase of temperatures in the long-term would open the possibility to save one-third of current glaciers’ volume according to the study. Under the scenario leading to a limited warming, greenhouse gas emissions would peak in the next few years and then decrease. According to previsions, this scenario would lead to a temperature rise of no more than 2°C for 2100, compared with pre-industrial levels, which reaches the current EU targets.

Scenario 2 – On the contrary, greenhouse gas emissions would continuously rise in the next decades in the second scenario. Consequences for the Alps would be tremendous since almost the entire glacier volume would disappear by 2100. The remaining ice volume would, according to Matthias Huss, researcher at Zurich and co-author of the study, “represent 5 percent or less of the present-day ice volume”. The study however also demonstrates that global emissions are currently just above what is projected by this scenario.

 

Climate change adaptation and mitigation, a challenge for the Alps
Glacier melt will certainly be a challenge of the Alps since they are of a high importance for the region’s landscapes, ecosystems and economy. Alpine glaciers provide water for the local fauna and flora but also to local communities for water reservoirs, agriculture and hydroelectric mechanisms.

In all scenarios, the Alps would anyway lose about 50% of their glacier volume by 2050. This can be explained by the usual long glacier’s response time to past temperatures rise, says study-leader Harry Zekollari. This study on the Alps echoes the Pyrenees Climate Change Observatory (OPCC) recent report on climate change in the Pyrenees, showing that already 50% of the Pyrenean glaciers disappeared since the 1980’s. In response to this report’s discoveries, the OPCC created a new online good practices database on climate change adaptation. Covering all mountainous economic sectors and climate change’s effects on mountains, this new database can certainly be a useful tool for Alpine communities. The Carpathian Convention’s report “Outlook on climate change adaptation in the Carpathian Mountains” might also serve as an example of political frameworks and recommendations towards adaptation.

Mountain areas suffer from climate change but also have a pivotal role in its mitigation and adaptation. As stated in the Bragança Declaration “Face the challenge of climate change: adaptation for future generations”, mountain areas can drive change by encouraging circular economy, raising awareness among youngers generations, promoting short circuits and mobilising all actors through a participatory approach. In response to the public consultation on the EU Strategy on Adaptation to Climate Change in March 2018, Euromontana also proposed concrete measures to be implemented at EU level.

Result from this new study should alert policy makers, stakeholders and citizens and encourage more cooperation between them to implement European, national and regional policies and tools able to fight, mitigate and adapt to climate change.

 

Share
17 April 2019

Euromontana sur Facebook

23 hours ago

Euromontana
One month since the #mountainconvention2024 in Puigcerdà! 🏔️ What future for #mountaineconomies? Find all the key insights in the event report! 📝🙏 Thank you to all stakeholders who shared their ideas, projects and recommendations for a brighter future in the mountains!Report 🔗 www.euromontana.org/outcomes ... See MoreSee Less
View on Facebook

3 days ago

Euromontana
Explore the new guide on ‘rural proofing for the evaluation of the rural perspective in laws, policies, plans and strategies’: bit.ly/3O995FiPublished by the Red Española de Desarrollo Rural (REDR), it intends to support authorities in incorporating a rural angle when designing, implementing, and reviewing policies and regulations.Find more information here: bit.ly/4ev41FK #RuralPact #RuralVisionEUELARD aisbl EESC - European Economic and Social Committee European Rural Development Network ODRAZ-Održivi razvoj zajednice Prepare AISBL Luonnonvarakeskus Smeunited Euromontana Diesis Network Wallonie.be ECOLISE EU CAP Network Netzwerk Zukunftsraum Land Vlaams Ruraal Netwerk Réseau wallon PAC Ruralni razvoj RH Ministerstvo zemědělství Netwerk Platteland / Netherlands Rural Network Maaeluvõrgustik Maaseutu - Tilaa elämälle Réseau national Agricultures et Ruralités 2023 - 2027 Deutsche Vernetzungsstelle Ländliche Räume Εθνικό Αγροτικό Δίκτυο - Greek National Rural Network Magyar Nemzeti Vidéki Hálózat CAP Network Ireland Rete Rurale Nazionale Lauku tīkls Ministère de l'Agriculture, de l'Alimentation et de la Viticulture Fondi.eu Krajowa Sieć Obszarów Wiejskich+ Rede Rural Nacional Rețeaua Rurală Națională - RRN Mreža za podeželje ... See MoreSee Less
View on Facebook

2 weeks ago

Euromontana
Today, members of the Rural Pact Coordination Group (RPCG) meet online to discuss: • The forthcoming RPCG Declaration on the future of EU rural policy, which addresses the open questions in the @European Commission’s ‘key achievements and ways forward’ report;• RPCG members’ position papers on the future of Europe’s rural areas;• RPCG members’ role in the Rural Pact Conference of April 2025;• Members’ actions to date & the Rural Pact Support Office 2025 work programme.More information at: bit.ly/4fwtjnS#RuralPact #RuralVisionEU ... See MoreSee Less
View on Facebook

Euromontana sur Twitter